2/13/2015

烏克蘭-馬拉松談判,短暫的停火。





經過16小時戎長又緊繃的談判後,各方在明斯克終於達成協議。但是,第二次明斯克協議肯定如同2014年9月的第一次協議,只能暫時停火,仍然沒有解決問題。
這次談判由兩個層次構成,第一層次所謂「諾曼第四方」,也就是俄、德、法、烏四國領袖的高峰會。四國領袖就烏東問題取得共識後,形成具體文字,交由第二層次的實際「談判組」進行談判。談判組由烏東的盧干斯克共和國「總統」普洛特尼次基,頓內次克共和國「總統」札哈成科,基輔代表-前總統庫奇馬,俄羅斯代表-俄駐烏克蘭大使祖拉柏夫以及歐安組織代表塔利雅薇妮四方構成。待談判組皆同意簽字後,再由四國領袖發表共同聲明表達支持之意。





第二次明斯克協議包括13條主文及一份附則,分析其內容後可以發現,幾乎完全是依照俄羅斯及烏東兩共和國的設想與要求而來,主要包括:
1.撤出重武器,依射程後撤50-140公里,確保了盧干斯克和頓內次克兩市不會再受炮擊;
2.大赦及不追究烏東民兵的法律責任;
3.基輔必須支付原來對烏東地區停止支付的薪水以及退休金,並重新提供原先中斷的銀行服務;
4.在國際機制下,確保對烏東的人道援助;
5.解除所有非法團體武裝;
6.2015年底前,烏克蘭進行憲改去中央化並通過烏東兩地永久性特殊地位的法律。協議簽字30天內烏克蘭國會要通過關於烏東兩地特殊地位的決議。
第二次明斯克協議爭議頗多。
首先,由2月12日到2月15日有好幾天的時間,可以確定烏東民兵會利用停火前時間強化對節巴切沃的包圍網,而陷入包圍網的烏軍會全力反擊。
第二,協議內容中關於解除非法團體武裝,今年年底前完成烏東地區特殊地位永久化立法以及修憲去中央化的要求,現在的基輔政府無法作到。波洛申科帶著這個協議回基輔,會有重重的阻力。
第三,重武器後撤卻沒談非軍事區的建立及進駐維和部隊的問題,所以只是雙方暫時停火休息,無法持續停火。
第四,俄烏邊界交由烏克蘭管制的前提,是在烏東兩地地方選舉結束並憲改完成後,期限訂在今年年底。但是,地方選舉又需要前述「談判組」各方取得共識協調完成後,依歐安組織的規範和監督下才能進行。這不知道要花多少時間。而這段時間,俄方可以源源不斷協助目前的烏東兩地重建。換句話說,明斯克會談前,德法兩國要求俄羅斯進行邊界管制的要求完全失敗。
第五,如果修憲又立專法賦予盧干斯克,頓內次克兩地永久的特殊地位,那哈立可夫,奧德薩是否比照辦理?然後呢?
第六,協議內關於雙方隔界,是以2014年9月第一次明斯克協議時雙方之界為準。但是,一月時烏東民民兵付出重大代價才奪下頓內次克國際機場,烏東民兵放棄的可能性不高。
嚴格說,協議簽完後留下的問題比解決的問題還多。
總體來說,以「諾曼第四方」來看,這次協議的簽訂是德法兩國憂慮美國準備提供烏克蘭致命性攻擊武器,進而導致烏克蘭戰事失控的環境下,在無論怎樣都要先有個停火協議的預設目標後,拎著烏克蘭去跟俄羅斯面對面會談。就「談判組」的角度來看,8千名陷入烏東民兵包圍網內的烏克蘭部隊就是談判各方籌碼,這次明斯克協議談判的外部和內部條件傾向對烏東民兵有利。
基輔難道一點也沒得到?這倒也不是。根據協議附則第8條,盧干斯克和頓內次克選出的議員,雖然烏克蘭國會不能逕行將其解職,但是議員選出來後,要由烏克蘭國會任命。換句話說,兩地表明不會脫離烏克蘭。這提供基輔當局和美國一個思考問題與採取行動的訊息。


1. Незамедлительное и всеобъемлющее прекращение огня в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей Украины и его строгое выполнение начиная с 00 ч. 00 мин. (киевское время) 15 февраля 2015 года.
2. Отвод всех тяжелых вооружений обеими сторонами на равные расстояния в целях создания зоны безопасности шириной минимум 50 км друг от друга для артиллерийских систем калибром 100 мм и более, зоны безопасности шириной 70 км для РСЗО и шириной 140 км для РСЗО «Торнадо-С», «Ураган», «Смерч» и тактических ракетных систем «Точка» («Точка У»):
- для украинских войск: от фактической линии соприкосновения;
- для вооруженных формирований отдельных районов Донецкой и Луганской областей Украины: от линии соприкосновения согласно Минскому меморандуму от 19 сентября 2014 г.
Отвод вышеперечисленных тяжелых вооружений должен начаться не позднее второго дня после прекращения огня и завершиться в течение 14 дней.
Этому процессу будет содействовать ОБСЕ при поддержке Трехсторонней Контактной группы.
3. Обеспечить эффективный мониторинг и верификацию режима прекращения огня и отвода тяжелого вооружения со стороны ОБСЕ с первого дня отвода, с применением всех необходимых технических средств, включая спутники, БПЛА, радиолокационные системы и пр.
4. В первый день после отвода начать диалог о модальностях проведения местных выборов в соответствии с украинским законодательством и Законом Украины «О временном порядке местного самоуправления в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей», а также о будущем режиме этих районов на основании указанного закона.
Незамедлительно, не позднее 30 дней с даты подписания данного документа, принять постановление Верховной рады Украины с указанием территории, на которую распространяется особый режим в соответствии с Законом Украины «О временном порядке местного самоуправления в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей» на основе линии, установленной в Минском меморандуме от 19 сентября 2014 г.
5. Обеспечить помилование и амнистию путем введения в силу закона, запрещающего преследование и наказание лиц в связи с событиями, имевшими место в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей Украины.
6. Обеспечить освобождение и обмен всех заложников и незаконно удерживаемых лиц на основе принципа «всех на всех». Этот процесс должен быть завершен самое позднее на пятый день после отвода.
7. Обеспечить безопасный доступ, доставку, хранение и распределение гуманитарной помощи нуждающимся на основе международного механизма.
8. Определение модальностей полного восстановления социально-экономических связей, включая социальные переводы, такие как выплата пенсий и иные выплаты (поступления и доходы, своевременная оплата всех коммунальных счетов, возобновление налогообложения в рамках правового поля Украины).
В этих целях Украина восстановит управление сегментом своей банковской системы в районах, затронутых конфликтом, и, возможно, будет создан международный механизм для облегчения таких переводов.
9. Восстановление полного контроля над государственной границей со стороны правительства Украины во всей зоне конфликта, которое должно начаться в первый день после местных выборов и завершиться после всеобъемлющего политического урегулирования (местные выборы в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей на основании Закона Украины и конституционная реформа) к концу 2015 года при условии выполнения пункта 11 – в консультациях и по согласованию с представителями отдельных районов Донецкой и Луганской областей в рамках Трехсторонней Контактной группы.
10. Вывод всех иностранных вооруженных формирований, военной техники, а также наемников с территории Украины под наблюдением ОБСЕ. Разоружение всех незаконных групп.
11. Проведение конституционной реформы в Украине со вступлением в силу к концу 2015 года новой конституции, предполагающей в качестве ключевого элемента децентрализацию (с учетом особенностей отдельных районов Донецкой и Луганской областей, согласованных с представителями этих районов), а также принятие постоянного законодательства об особом статусе отдельных районов Донецкой и Луганской областей в соответствии с мерами, указанными в примечании[1], до конца 2015 года. (См. примечание)
12. На основании Закона Украины «О временном порядке местного самоуправления в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей» вопросы, касающиеся местных выборов, будут обсуждаться и согласовываться с представителями отдельных районов Донецкой и Луганской областей в рамках Трехсторонней Контактной группы. Выборы будут проведены с соблюдением соответствующих стандартов ОБСЕ при мониторинге со стороны БДИПЧ ОБСЕ.
13. Интенсифицировать деятельность Трехсторонней Контактной группы, в том числе путем создания рабочих групп по выполнению соответствующих аспектов Минских соглашений. Они будут отражать состав Трехсторонней Контактной группы.
Примечание:
Такие меры в соответствии с Законом «Об особом порядке местного самоуправления в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей» включают следующее:
- освобождение от наказания, преследования и дискриминации лиц, связанных с событиями, имевшими место в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей;
- право на языковое самоопределение;
- участие органов местного самоуправления в назначении глав органов прокуратуры и судов в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей;
- возможность для центральных органов исполнительной власти заключать с соответствующими органами местного самоуправления соглашения относительно экономического, социального и культурного развития отдельных районов Донецкой и Луганской областей;
- государство оказывает поддержку социально-экономическому развитию отдельных районов Донецкой и Луганской областей;
- содействие со стороны центральных органов власти трансграничному сотрудничеству в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей с регионами Российской Федерации;
- создание отрядов народной милиции по решению местных советов с целью поддержания общественного порядка в отдельных районах Донецкой и Луганской областей;
- полномочия депутатов местных советов и должностных лиц, избранных на досрочных выборах, назначенных Верховной Радой Украины этим законом, не могут быть досрочно прекращены.
Документ подписали участники Трехсторонней Контактной группы:
Посол Хайди Тальявини
Второй Президент Украины Л.Д. Кучма
Посол Российской Федерации на Украине М.Ю. Зурабов
А.В. Захарченко
И.В. Плотницкий

2/04/2015

這已不是反擊﹗烏克蘭人對於動員的態度。








自1月20日起烏克蘭進行第四波動員,對象為18-60歲男性。預計今年動員104,000人,第一階段預計目標為5萬人。記者就被動員對象進行訪談


Stanislav,34歲,Livov
保衛自己國家-這是毫無疑問,且正確的承諾。我是後備軍官。我在徵兵處的朋友告訴我,我被動員了。老婆馬上就掉淚,母親也在哭,說她也活不久了,每一天都可能會死。但是,我是個男人。握拳往桌上一搥,就這樣了。然後好像是天意,在Lugansk的朋友打電話給我。剛開始和我聊了一會兒,然後我把電話交給老婆。他們平心靜氣的跟我說:Slavik,親愛的,我們不需要你的保護。我們完全不要求你們保護我們。你為什麼要來這裡?我聽著,吸了3支菸,明白他們的話是鹹的。


Igor,32歲,Ivano-Frankovsk
我不反對動員。但是,手放在胸口上。我已經忘了怎麼清理武器,更別說操作重裝備。就我所知,前線最好的情況是半裝。而且,這已不是反擊,這是真正的戰爭。「眼睛遮住,叫你去哪就去哪」的辦法行不通,只是送我們去死。


Artem,28歲,Kharikov
「在監獄待著,比吃子彈好」。我可以建議我們政府:要嘛扛起十字架,要嘛套上內褲。他們一直沒法確定解決事情的目標:是要為土地打仗,還是保護老百姓的性命。如果是前者,那我不想參加,因為戰爭是最簡單的方式。如果是後者,那就是外交,和平的手段。讓我們國家的領導人,去明斯克,阿斯塔納或是任何一個能談判的地方,坐下來說:我們邀請所有人來討論,如果沒有對話,就不要離開。


Konstantin,31歲,Chernigov
星期天會有家族會議。我是長子。父親說:我也被動員了。我對國家這些事情的看法,這是我私事。我不想談這個。感傷與遵守法律和完成誓言一點也沒關係。


Ivan,29歲,Belgorod-Dneptrovskij ,奧德薩州
Biriukov(烏克蘭國防部助理)稱我們這些不願死在頓巴斯的烏克蘭男人是懦夫。這點我完全同意。是,我是懦夫,因為我怕我預計在春天出生的小孩長大沒爸爸。是,我是懦夫,因為我怕沒有人可以拿杯水給我母親喝。我不是分離分子,也不是游離分子,我支持統一的烏克蘭。只不過,我腦袋清楚。


Valerij,31歲,基輔
我們以前站在獨立廣場,想像著好生活,推翻了亞努柯維奇。然後,整個城市到處都是波洛申科「過新生活!」的牌子。永遠忘不了當時我是怎樣的情緒,等待改變。時間過去,現在彼此之間,晚上在廚房,我們說:「想過舊日子」。我承認錯了,很慚愧,我的錯要付出代價,就算是用生命。我等著動員。


Mikhail,37歲,Nikopol, Dnepropetrovskaja oblast
我正考慮著普亭的建議,找時間去俄羅斯。我從來就不是普亭的粉絲,但是我也不認為,你對隔壁國家的總統想出很多粗話就是愛國主義的模範。我對政治完全沒興趣,我只是不希望我的孩子們變孤兒。


Sergej,30歲,Slavjansk,頓內次克州
看著電視新聞。星期一貨車運25人,35人。星期二死了10人,傷15人。然後一直這樣。我只活了30年,我才剛裝了鐵窗-我花了一年半才買下它。我不想被放進墓園的名單裡面。我想活著!也不想殺人,不管願不願意,我們都是自己人,頓內次克人,這是兄弟相殘。


http://lenta.ru/articles/2015/01/28/mb/

P.S.:同一時間,頓內次克共和國則是預備動員100,000人,對象16歲以上

10/01/2014

烏克蘭內戰-屍坑-2


日後一定會有人被送上國際法庭!



Фото: Marko Djurica / Reuters
В моргах Донецка лежат около 400 неопознанных тел, обнаруженных в местах массового захоронения под городом. Об этом сообщает «Российская газета» со ссылкой на латвийского правозащитника, эксперта ОБСЕ Эйнарса Граудиньша.
По его словам, часть могильников еще не раскопана, а точное число погибших и пропавших без вести на освобожденной от украинской армии территории пока неизвестно. «Надо учитывать, что кто-то из пропавших без вести может находиться в плену или без сознания в больнице. А кто-то может быть убит», — отметил эксперт.
Граудиньш признался, что был шокирован свидетельствами женщин из села Нижняя Крынка о преступных действиях добровольцев украинских батальонов «Азов» и «Донбасс». По их рассказам, военные подвергали женщин групповым изнасилованиям, в том числе несовершеннолетних и пожилых.
Помимо этого, ему сообщили, что бойцы АТО переправляли по почте награбленные в деревне ценности.
Власти ДНР 28 сентября заявили об обнаружении очередных массовых захоронений недалеко от поселка Нижняя Крынка, в котором ранее базировался батальон Нацгвардии Украины. Ранее, 23 сентября ополченцы нашли братскую могилу близ шахты «Коммунар».
Украинские силовики свою причастность к массовым убийствам под Донецком отрицают.
http://lenta.ru/news/2014/10/01/gravesites/

9/25/2014

烏克蘭內戰-尸坑


歐安組織確認發現幾個在頓內次克附近的尸坑

Latest from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine based on information received as of 18:00 (Kyiv time), 23 September 2014
KYIV 24 September 2014



The SMM observed the situation in Donbas, with a particular focus on implementation of the provisions of the Memorandum signed on 19 September in Minsk. It also continued to monitor the situation of IDPs.

The situation in Kharkiv was calm.

Nikolay Kozitsyn, a commander of Don Cossacks, de facto controlling south-western areas of the Luhansk region, warned the SMM that he would not allow any patrols of OSCE monitors without prior arrangement.

The SMM heard sounds of shelling from 11:43 to 12:15 emanating from the vicinity of Shchastya (23km north of Luhansk) power plant, controlled by Ukrainian forces, notably a volunteer Aidar battalion. The shelling was also corroborated by local residents, but rejected by the commander of Aidar’s unit, stationed in the power plant. The latter also said that the power plant, providing energy for the whole region, was continuously attacked by irregular armed groups.

On 22 September, at 20:10, the SMM heard around 17 explosions in rapid succession in Tekstylnyk: the south-west district of Donetsk. The SMM saw also flashes in the clouds, similar to lightning. At 20:25 the SMM heard another series of 26 explosions.

The SMM observed a simultaneous release of hostages and detainees between the Ukrainian Army and the ‘LPR’ in the area of Krasnyi Luch village (26km west of Luhansk). One ‘LPR’ detainee and six Ukrainian soldiers were released.

The ‘military police’ of ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (‘DPR’) told the SMM that three unmarked graves allegedly containing multiple bodies had been found; two of them were located in a coal mine Komunar near the village Nyzhnia Krynka (35km north-east of Donetsk) and one inside the village. The SMM proceeded to the scene and saw in the coal mine two areas located fifty metres apart, each containing two human bodies. All four corpses were in the process of decomposition. The SMM also saw eight 9mm Makarov pistol cartridges approximately five meters away from the bodies. Near the road on the edge of the village, the SMM observed a pile of earth resembling a grave which had a stick with a plaque, written in Russian and containing the names (or in one case – initials) of five individuals. The plaque indicated that the individuals died on 27.08.2014. On top of the plaque there was another inscription saying: ‘Died for Putin’s lies’. Neither in the coal mine nor in the village did the SMM see any forensic experts. COMMENT: The SMM cannot provide a forensic assessment of the sites.

Also in Nyzhnia Krynka the SMM observed a destroyed bridge over the water reservoir, connecting the locality with Donetsk. According to local residents the bridge was blown up by Ukrainian soldiers leaving the area around 18 September.

Acting head of Kramatorsk’s (97km north of Donetsk) administration informed the SMM there were approximately 1,700 registered IDPs in town, but their real number was much higher since many had not registered. She mentioned that the number of IDPs was growing and that currently IDPs were mainly coming from Horlivka (44km north of Donetsk). She also claimed that the city was not receiving any help to tackle the IDP issues. A staff member of the local registration centre estimated that the total number of IDPs in Kramatorsk is about 5,000, and that 2,000 of them are school children.

In Mariupol, on 22 September, the SMM heard sounds consistent with anti-aircraft and small arms fire from 20:10 to 20:45, emanating from the west. On the following day the ATO HQ representative confirmed this incident, and claimed that the Ukrainian army had been targeting unmanned aerial vehicles flying in the area.

The SMM visited a temporary checkpoint of the Ukrainian army near Talakivka (20km north-west of Mariupol), which had been shelled on 22 September from the north-east direction, and observed twelve shell craters in the vicinity of the checkpoint; at least eight houses and two gas pipelines were seriously damaged. The SMM observed checkpoint personnel preparing to detonate an unexploded mortar shell lodged in the road about 30 meters away from the area. One local resident, who lived across the street from one of the damaged pipelines, confirmed the attack.

The Co-ordinator of the Women’s Sotnia (literally: a centuria, a military unit of around 100 soldiers) of the National Defence Head Quarter in Dnipropetrovsk informed the SMM that female volunteers rendered assistance to IDPs, collected food, clothes and medicine for wounded soldiers, and organised fundraising to support Ukrainian troops and soldiers’ families. Some women from the sotnia served in conflict zones as volunteers in medical and logistical units; inter alia they took dead or wounded soldiers from the battle field. Between 10 and 15 women were fighting in different battalions.

The situation in Kherson, Odessa, and Chernivtsi was calm.

Representatives of Caritas, a charitable organization of the Catholic Church, told the SMM in Ivano-Frankivsk that there was enough accommodation suitable for winter in the region, however many IDPs had difficulties paying the rent and utilities – currently Caritas pay the rent for the first two months of their stay. Representatives of Caritas also highlighted that Ukrainian soldiers, injured in the ATO, often received less assistance than IDPs.

The situation in Lviv and Kyiv was calm.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/124216

9/10/2014

烏克蘭內戰-三方停火協議


9月5日的三方停火協議看起來沒甚麼實際約束力,不過第3條去中央化的條文,波洛申科賭很大.有意思的是幾個代表的簽名:歐安的代表塔利亞維妮,庫區馬,祖拉伯夫,扎哈爾成科和普洛特尼茲基.到底普洛特尼茲基有沒有簽字?






9/04/2014

烏克蘭內戰-分別



頓內次克:送走妻子,女兒,獨自留下來戰鬥的一幕.


9月3日烏克蘭總統府網站突然刊出俄羅斯總統普亭與烏克蘭總統波洛申科透過電話達成「經常性」停火的協議。但是俄羅斯總統府網站沒有關於這個「經常性」停火協議的文字,頓內次克共和國也否認這種說法。稍後,烏克蘭總統府的網站關於這件事情的新聞也將「經常性」一詞刪除。根據俄羅斯總統府發言人培斯可夫的說法:雙方領袖交換意見後認為「最優先的事情是盡快的停止東南部的流血衝突」。
兩國總統在烏東問題上認知差異極大的現象,反映出烏東問題透過和平談判取得妥協的困難:基輔認定俄羅斯要負責任,並且拉著一群人助陣,但是俄羅斯堅持,這是基輔和烏東民兵之間的事,其他人不要插手。在這種不同認知下,美國、歐盟透過任何手段去要求、壓迫俄羅斯來坦烏東能否停火的責任,無異是緣木求魚。
然而,無論是基輔,華盛頓,莫斯科,柏林,頓內次克,盧干斯克都知道這個內戰不能無止境的持續下去。在基輔和烏東民兵缺乏互信,甚至彼此仇恨逐漸累積的情況下,只有透過軍事上的勝利才能取得談判桌上的勝利。
烏東自四月開始爆發武裝衝突,到六月停火協議失效。七月一日波洛申科宣布進行「反恐怖分子行動」,對自己國內不同政治立場的國民視為恐怖分子進行武裝清剿。而同時,烏東也視基輔政府為法西斯。由這一刻開始,停火的前提就是:有一方在軍事上出現挫敗。
到八月12日烏克蘭政府軍基本上完成對頓內次克和盧干斯克兩個城市的包圍。之前被指控和俄羅斯關係密切的幾個民兵重要幹部也離開頓內次克共和國的重要職務。烏克蘭國防部當時樂觀的認為戰事在2個星期之內會結束。但是,基輔輕忽了頓內次克和盧干斯克這兩個地區以煤礦工人為主組成民兵的戰鬥意志,也輕忽了2004年橘色革命對很多東部民眾帶來的驚愕,2005年以後尤申科政府的壓制俄語所造成的感傷,2010及2012年政黨輪替合法選出的總統國會帶來的希望突然在2014年被街頭運動摧毀。然後,要求文化、經濟、政治自治權,要求俄語作為官方語卻被視為分離份子。難民逃到俄羅斯尋求安身,聯合國8月27日報告超過2500人喪生,烏東民兵沒有其它出路
8月24日以後戰事逆轉,烏克蘭政府軍被烏東民兵反包圍,失去了對盧干斯克和頓內次克週邊的控制權。所以25日俄羅斯的人道救援車隊不需基輔同意,也不必紅十字會陪同就長驅直抵盧干斯克。26日波洛申科到明斯克在歐盟-烏克蘭-關稅同盟三邊會議中與普亭面對面商談烏東問題。9月1日,烏克蘭前總統庫奇馬,俄羅斯駐烏克蘭大使祖拉伯夫,歐安會議代表以及頓內次克、盧干斯克代表在明斯克舉行會談,烏東代表提出烏東地區特別地位問題。
無論後續結果如何,頓內次克和盧干斯克證明一件事情:權利不是靠乞求施捨而來,而是靠著犧牲得到的勝利。(同刊於聯合報04/09/2014)

7/25/2014

烏克蘭內戰-難民/2


總算有份國際人權組織的報告




An unguided Grad rocket hit the house of Valentina Fedorovna, 77, in the Kuibyshivskyi district in Donetsk on July 19, 2014. The rocket struck the second floor, penetrated the floor and went through her kitchen and bathroom.
© 2014 Human Rights Watch



Ukraine: Unguided Rockets Killing Civilians
Stop Use of Grads in Populated Areas
July 24, 2014
(Donetsk) – Unguided Grad rockets launched apparently by Ukrainian government forces and pro-government militias have killed at least 16 civilians and wounded many more in insurgent-controlled areas of Donetsk and its suburbs in at least four attacks between July 12 and 21, 2014, Human Rights Watch said today.

The use of indiscriminate rockets in populated areas violates international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, and may amount to war crimes.

Grads are unguided rockets that cannot be targeted accurately, and are often fired in salvos from multi-barrel rocket launchers to saturate a wide area. Human Rights Watch called on all parties to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian government forces, to stop using Grad rockets in or near populated areas because of the likelihood of killing and wounding civilians. Insurgent forces should minimize the risk to civilians under their control by avoiding deploying forces and weapons in densely populated areas.

“Grad rockets are notoriously imprecise weapons that shouldn’t be used in populated areas,” said Ole Solvang, senior emergencies researcher at Human Rights Watch. “If insurgent and Ukrainian government forces are serious about limiting harm to civilians, they should both immediately stop using these weapons in populated areas.”
Anti-Kiev insurgent forces started asserting control over Donetsk, a city in eastern Ukraine with a population of almost one million, in April. Because of security concerns, Human Rights Watch was unable to determine first-hand the impact of the Grad attacks on insurgent forces and installations.

Both Ukrainian government and insurgent forces have recently used Grad rockets. Although Ukrainian government officials and the press service of the National Guard have denied using Grad rockets in Donetsk, a Human Rights Watch investigation on the ground strongly indicates that Ukrainian government forces were responsible for the attacks that occurred between July 12 and 21.

The four attacks took place close to the front line between insurgent and government forces. Impact craters on the ground and on buildings investigated by Human Rights Watch were characteristic of rocket attacks, not shelling. In all four cases, the angle and shape of the craters, and the fact that they were on the side of buildings facing the front line, strongly suggests that the rockets came from the direction of Ukrainian government forces or pro-Kiev armed groups. The attacks’ proximity to the front line also makes it unlikely, and in some cases impossible, that insurgent forces were responsible for the attacks. In two of the attacks, rockets hit on or near insurgent bases and checkpoints at the same time as they hit residential areas, indicating government forces were responsible.

In the July 21 attack, three civilians died when Grad rockets hit a residential area near the Donetsk train station. Ongoing fighting made it difficult for Human Rights Watch to determine whether there were additional casualties, but what could be identified as Grad rockets by their distinctive sound could be heard throughout the day.

On July 19, at least five rockets struck a residential area in the Kuibyshivskyi district in western Donetsk, injuring at least four civilians.

Human Rights Watch documented multiple rocket impacts on July 12 on a residential area in the Petrovskyi district on the western outskirts of Donetsk that killed at least seven civilians.

Also on July 12, multiple rockets struck a residential area in Maryinka, a village just outside of Donetsk, close to the Petrovskyi district, killing at least six civilians.

Human Rights Watch was able to identify the rockets fired as unguided 122-millimeter surface-to-surface Grad artillery rockets launched from multi-barrel rocket launchers with up to 40 launch tubes. Most Grad rockets have a range of 1.5 to 20 kilometers. The rockets vary in length from 1.9 to 3.3 meters and weigh 45 to 75 kilograms.

Grad rockets use various types of warheads. The most common is a high explosive/fragmentation type, which contains approximately 6.4 kilograms of high explosives and is designed to produce 3,150 fragments, which can kill or injure within a radius of 28 meters. At its maximum range of some 20 kilometers, the most common rocket (9M22U) with the basic high explosive/fragmentation (M-21-OF) warhead is only accurate within a rectangle of 336 meters by 160 meters. In other words, from its aim point, the rocket could land anywhere within a rectangle of approximately 54,000 square meters.

The fighting in eastern Ukraine is governed by the laws of war, which apply to all parties to the conflict. Grad rockets cannot be targeted with sufficient precision to differentiate military targets, which may be attacked, from civilians and civilian structures, such as homes and schools not being used for military purposes, which are immune from attack. As such, their use in populated areas violates the laws-of-war prohibition against indiscriminate attacks. In addition, attacks not directed at valid military targets are also unlawfully indiscriminate.

Human Rights Watch said that insurgent forces have failed to take all feasible precautions to avoid deploying in densely populated areas, thereby endangering civilians in violation of the laws of war. In one case, separatist forces moved their base closer to the center of the town when Grad rockets struck their base and a nearby residential area. Violations of the laws of war by one side to the conflict do not justify violations by the other side.

Individuals who commit serious violations of the laws of war with criminal intent, that is intentionally or recklessly, are responsible for war crimes.

“Ukrainian authorities should order all their forces, including volunteer forces, to immediately stop using Grads in or near populated areas, and insurgent forces should avoid deploying in densely populated areas,” Solvang said. “Commanding officers on all sides should recognize that one day they could face legal consequences for their actions.”

Human Rights Watch called on Ukraine’s international supporters to urge the Ukrainian government to strictly adhere to international humanitarian law, including by ending all use of Grad rockets in populated areas.

For additional details about the attacks, please see below.

Attacks Near the Train Station, July 21
On July 21, Ukrainian government forces stationed on the northwest edge of Donetsk began a military offensive against insurgent forces in the area around and north of the train station. Because of contradictory statements by Ukrainian authorities, it was not immediately clear whether the offensive was conducted by government forces or pro-Kiev volunteer forces operating on their own.

Media reports quoted a spokesman for Ukraine’s military stating that the fighting around the train station was “a planned offensive ... to push rebels away from the airport,” but that “[a]viation and artillery are not aiming at civilian residences. Their only aim is to block the terrorists and fighters.” In a separate media report, Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s National Security Council, denied that government forces were involved in any fighting, but claimed that a small self-organized group of pro-Kiev forces were fighting insurgents.

Information collected by Human Rights Watch indicates that the Grad rockets killed at least three civilians during the attack.

Local residents told Human Rights Watch that several rockets had struck their neighborhood, just south of the train station, at about 10:30 a.m. They said one of the rockets struck the courtyard of an apartment complex, killing one woman and wounding a man. The woman did not live in the apartment complex so the neighbors did not know her name.

A Human Rights Watch visit to the site found an impact crater with blood next to it in the middle of the courtyard. There was also blood on the steps leading up to one of the nearby buildings. Neighbors said shrapnel from the same rocket had injured a man there and that he then tried to drag himself up the steps and into the building.

While the area is generally under insurgent control, as is most of Donetsk, local residents told Human Rights Watch that no insurgent forces or weapons had been in the area at the time of the attack.

Foreign journalists told Human Rights Watch that a second rocket killed two men near a school about 100 meters away from the rocket that killed the woman. A security expert working with the New York Times provided Human Rights Watch with the GPS coordinates of the strike that killed the two men and another strike in the immediate vicinity.

The security expert also provided Human Rights Watch with GPS coordinates for three impact sites, also in a residential area, located to the northeast of the train station. There was no information about casualties from that area.

Human Rights Watch heard what appeared to be salvos of Grad rockets being launched from multi-barrel launchers from the north of the city throughout the day, but ongoing fighting made it difficult to establish whether there were additional civilian casualties.

Attack on Kuibyshivskyi district, July 19
Human Rights Watch documented five impact sites in Pervaya Ploshchad, a residential area of mostly three- to five-story buildings on the western edge of Donetsk, caused by a rocket attack at about 4 p.m. on July 19.

One of the rockets struck a five-story residential building at 6 Tumanyana Street. Valentina Fedorovna, 77, who lives on the ground floor, told Human Rights Watch:

I was just about to turn on the TV when I heard a loud whistling noise and a big bang. Then I don’t remember anything more until somebody shouted “Is there anybody alive in here?” Then a young man came and pulled me out. I was completely in shock.

Another resident, who was injured by a piece of shrapnel that went through her arm and a smaller one lodged in her chest, told Human Rights Watch:

All of a sudden I felt an explosion that pushed back so I hit my head. I didn’t even notice that I was wounded. All the windows shattered. People were screaming.

A Human Rights Watch examination of the site found that the rocket had entered through the second floor of the building, continued through the kitchen and bathroom of Valentina Fedorovna’s apartment on the ground floor, and went farther down to the basement.” If the rocket had hit two meters to the left it would have gone through the living room where I was sitting instead of the kitchen,” Valentina Fedorovna said.


Another rocket, which hit the courtyard about 20 meters from Valentina Federovna’s building, wounded four people, who were taken to the hospital. Neighbors said one woman was seriously injured by a piece of shrapnel that lodged in her chest.


A third rocket struck the playground of School 71; a fourth hit the road outside the local church, shattering most of the windows; and a fifth hit a single-story house that was empty at the time.

Both the flight direction of the rockets and circumstances of the attack indicate that Ukrainian government forces were responsible. The rocket striking 6 Tumanyana Street hit its western façade. The crater in the soft ground in the school playground also showed that the rockets came from a western direction. At the time of the attack, the front line between insurgent and Ukrainian government forces was several kilometers farther west, according to local residents.

Insurgent forces manning a checkpoint about three kilometers west of the Pervaya Ploshchad area told Human Rights Watch that Grad rockets had also hit their checkpoint and the area between the checkpoint and the residential area in the same attack. Human Rights Watch observed craters, marks on the asphalt, and remnants of Grad rockets near the checkpoint and between the checkpoint and the residential area that were consistent with this account.

Attack on Petrovskyi district, July 12
At about 4 p.m. on July 12, multiple Grad rockets hit a residential area in Petrovskyi district in the western part of Donetsk. The area that was hit is several kilometers north of a road that demarcates the front line between insurgent and Ukrainian government forces.

Human Rights Watch examined 19 impact craters in an area about 600 meters wide. Local residents also showed Human Rights Watch remnants from Grad rockets that they said had hit their gardens or houses.

In one case, a rocket struck the house and garage at 2 Chugaeva Street, killing an entire family of two adults and two children.

Liudmila, 62, was at home in Chugaeva Street when the attack happened. She told Human Rights Watch:

I was in my room when I first heard a whistling sound. The walls and windows started to shake and then there were many loud bangs. My son was in the kitchen. He came running when the attack started, probably trying to save me, but a shrapnel hit him in the leg. What’s here that they wanted to attack? There is no factory here, no fighters, just poor houses.

Liudmila’s car was destroyed in the attack and Human Rights Watch observed significant damage to her house. Her son was recovering.

An officer on duty in the local police station showed Human Rights Watch the logbook from July 12 and provided Human Rights Watch with addresses where people had died during the attack. The police had registered seven deaths, including the four people mentioned above.

Craters and marks on buildings showed that the rockets had been launched from a location to the southeast. The likely launch area is located south of the southern-most checkpoint manned by insurgent forces.

Several of the impact craters indicated that the rockets had come from a southern direction. Local residents said that there had been no insurgent forces or weapons in the area before the attack.

Attack on Maryinka, July 12
At about 10 p.m. on July 12, multiple Grad rockets struck an area in the southeastern part of the village of Maryinka, which consists of fields, an industrial zone, and a residential area, clustered around a milk factory.

Maryinka has about 10,000 inhabitants and is just outside the western edge of Donetsk, adjacent to the Petrovskyi district. It consists mainly of three- to five-story buildings.

A 25-year-old taxi driver told Human Rights Watch:

I was at home when the attack started. I ran to the basement immediately, but the attack was over in about 40 seconds. There was no warning. Nothing had happened here before. I only came out from the basement when the [insurgents] came to evacuate us. Everything was burning and there was debris everywhere. I never thought that something like this could happen here.

The local department for housing and utilities, which documented the effects of the strike, provided Human Rights Watch with the names of six people who died in that attack. All of those killed were between the ages of 45 and 60. Fifteen people were taken to the hospital, a department employee said, most with light injuries such as concussions.

Human Rights Watch documented multiple Grad rocket impacts in the residential area. Several buildings had been hit directly, and most buildings in the area had broken windows. According to the housing and utilities department, at least 12 apartment buildings had direct rocket hits. Human Rights Watch discovered remnants of Grad rockets in multiple locations in the area that was hit, including inside destroyed apartments.

At the time of the attack, insurgent forces manned a checkpoint about 800 meters southwest of the edge of the village, and an unknown number of insurgent forces were deployed on the opposite side of the road, between the checkpoint and the residential area that was hit. The base commander said that both the checkpoint and the base were struck at the same time as the residential area and that 22 rockets landed on the territory of his base. There were additional Grad attacks against the same area in at least the two following days, residents and the commander said, but most civilians evacuated immediately after the initial attack. Following the attacks, the insurgent base relocated closer to the center of Maryinka, the commander said.

Ukrainian government forces appear responsible for the attacks. All the rockets that had struck buildings hit walls facing southwest, indicating that the rockets came from there. Insurgent force personnel told Human Rights Watch that none of their troops were located farther southwest beyond the checkpoint 800 meters from the residential part of Maryinka, which, if true, would not have made it possible for them to have carried out the attack. A journalist who travelled to some of the villages southeast of Maryinka two days after the attack told Human Rights Watch that he saw no insurgent forces in that area at that time.

The journalist told Human Rights Watch that pro-Kiev forces in non-standard uniforms in Novomikhaylivka, a village southwest of Maryinka, had boasted to him the following day that they had a Grad rocket system and that they were firing on insurgent forces. The soldiers told the journalist that their aiming was accurate because they had scouts that helped them direct the fire.

A resident of Maryinka who fled to another village after the attack told Human Rights Watch that he saw Grad rockets being launched twice from a village farther southwest, which was under the control of Ukrainian forces on July 13.
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/07/24/ukraine-unguided-rockets-killing-civilians